Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock

A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed

Competitive Intelligence Empirical Construct Validation Using Expert In-Depth Interviews Study

Madureira, L., Popovic, A., & Castelli, M. (2021). Competitive Intelligence Empirical Construct Validation Using Expert In-Depth Interviews Study. In 2021 IEEE International Conference on Technology Management, Operations and Decisions (ICTMOD) (pp. 1-6) (ICTMOD 2021. IEEE International Conference on Technology Management, Operations and Decisions, 24-26 Nov. 2021, Marrakech, Morocco). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTMOD52902.2021.9739422For a discipline to prosper in business and science, it must be thoroughly defined, characterized, and measured. Notably, the definition must reflect its praxis. This study aims to fill this void by empirically validating the Competitive Intelligence unified view and modular definition proposed by Madureira, Popovic, and Castelli (2021). The choice for this specific definition relies on its recency, comprehensiveness, completeness, and universality. The study uses a mixed-methods approach to derive meta-inferences from the sequential integration of qualitative and quantitative methods. We tested content, external, discriminant validities, reliability, and applicability using an in-depth interview study with twenty global CI subject matter experts. The results empirically validate the unified view, the modular definition, the five core defining dimensions, and their respective descriptors. This study unfolds the impact of CI in management research across five key areas - practical, theoretical, educational, society, policy. The critical lever for this impact is the effectuation of the Body of Knowledge which subsequently effectuates the CI practice, education, and discipline, serving as the foundation for its future development in business and academia.authorsversionpublishe

Design Thinking: The New Mindset for Competitive Intelligence? Impacts on the Competitive Intelligence Model

Competitive Intelligence (CI) is becoming of essence due to the need for improving firm performance in an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (V.U.C.A.) world. The CI model, however, has not evolved to address evolving intelligence needs, highlighting an opportunity for further research on how to fit for purpose the CI process itself. This study found that Design Thinking (DT) mindset and process has potential for the application to the CI model, improving efficiency both on the overall process, at each stage and in CI. This paper focus on researching the CI process and recognizing its main pitfalls, explaining how DT can help fix or improve on these, and propose a new process which incorporates the aforementioned results. The final part of the study analyses the implications for both CI practitioners and the CI discipline, while pointing to future research with the aim of validating this suggested framework

Protesting or Justifying? A Latent Class Model for Contingent Valuation with Attitudinal Data

This article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness-to-pay for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation (CV) and attitudinal data capturing protest attitudes related to the lack of trust in public institutions providing those goods. A measure of the social cost associated with protest responses and the consequent loss in potential contributions for providing the public good is proposed. The presence of potential justification biases is further considered, that is, the possibility that for psychological reasons the response to the CV question affects the answers to the attitudinal questions. The results from our empirical application suggest that psychological factors should not be ignored in CV estimation for policy purposes, allowing for a correct identification of protest responses. JEL codes: C35, C85, Q51

Energy Paradoxes

In the domain of energy systems, paradoxes show that history runs often against what is expected or predicted. This article reviews the paradoxes related with the transition from wood to coal, and then from coal/oil to nuclear, and concludes by lifting a corner of the veil on the paradoxes that have already surfaced in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy (green paradoxes)

VALIDATION STUDY OF HEALTH BELIEFS SCALE

Introduction: The Health Belief Scale is a questionnaire used to assess a wide range of beliefs related to health. The objective of this study was to undertake construction and culturally adapt the Health Belief Scale (HBS) to the Portuguese language and to test its reliability and validity. Methods: This new version was obtained with forward/backward translations, consensus panels and a pre-test, having been inspired by some of the items from “Canada’s Health Promotion Survey” and the “European Health and Behaviour Survey”, with the inclusion of new items about food-related beliefs. The Portuguese version of Health Belief Scale and a form for the characteristics of the participants were applied to 849 Portuguese adolescents. Results: Reliability was good with a Cronbach’s alpha coeficient of 0.867, and an intraclass correlation coeficient (ICC) of 0.95. Corrected item-total coeficients ranged from 0.301 to 0.620 and weighted kappa coeficients ranged from 0.72 to 0.93 for the total scale items. We obtained a scale composed of 13 items divided into ive factors (smoking and alcohol belief, food belief, sexual belief, physical and sporting belief, and social belief), which explain 57.97% of the total variance. Conclusions: The scale exhibited suitable psychometric properties, in terms of internal consistency, reproducibility and construct validity. It can be used in various areas of research